The Great Indian Team Performance Curve: A Thesis

I read a friend’s Facebook status post, wondering about the changes we are witnessing  in the Indian team’s performance. To be precise, his questions were “how so much” and “how so quickly”.

A while ago, I had read an extremely well-conceived article by Cricinfo’s Siddharth Monga on the contribution of the “system” to India’s Champion’s Trophy win last night. Here it is.

Armed with the thoughts that came while reading Monga’s thoughtful piece, I set about trying to construct a quickfire “thesis” to explain the path charted by the Indian cricket team

Part A: how so much?

Ans: The direction that a cricket team – correction, an Indian cricket team goes can be largely explained by measuring the following areas:

(A)   the leadup to selecting the final 15 who set off for the tour – including resourcefulness, non-compromise and vision,

(B)   Captain’s performance as a player

(C)   The captain-coach duo and their (interpersonal) vibes within the team including handling of individual players as well as coaching staff,

(D)   Form of individual stars in the team, if any; and

(E)    Expectations set by the leadership team from the players, series by series (completely on-field stuff, nothing interpersonal here). This includes flexible thinking.

[A, B & D are extremely version specific; hence same set of people can produce different performance curves in different versions of cricket]

• Ganguly's team, in rebuilding phase of 2000-2003, thrived partly on A & B,  a lot on C & D and little less on E (except uncompromising integrity).

• During the latter parts of Ganguly era (late 2004-2005) the team form dipped due to partial dips in B, C & D.

• In Dravid’s (2005-mid 2007) era the emphasis on A & E became supreme; B was very good too, for most parts. However all of that was completely undone by the then coach Chappell's effect in undermining C - so much so that the huge minus in B led to underperformance in D as well.

• MSD's 1^st era (2007--2010), on the other hand, revived team form almost entirely based on C, D & E. In Tests, B almost did not come into picture, such was the overwhelming effect of D [Big four + Viru + Zaheer]!! A got toned down to moderate – which is fine if D is good.

• Dhoni’s 2^nd era (early 2011 to end 2012) saw a virtual disappearance of D, while B did not come up to compensate. This made BIG difference, even as A & E remained very similar and C dipped only marginally compared to Dhoni’s 1^st era. [Not by coincidence, Era-2 was the first days for captain with new coach]

• Dhoni’s 3^rd era is just starting. D is not likely to reach the stratospheric heights of his 1^st era anytime soon (certainly not in Tests). I agree majorly to this article. By accident or by design, Team India's A has shot up in past 3 months, even compensating for seniors' exodus contributing to instability in D (it is also looking up, thanks to performing youngsters).  In fact, A has fared so well that D (at least in Champion’s Trophy) was a factor of A!!   Decisive A has also led to decisiveness in E. Factor C, while still very good, is now so very different from Era 1. These days we see an animated Dhoni who actually tells youngsters what to do…and I believe he is now in sync with India's "new" coach Duncan Fletcher.

Part B: how so quickly?

A & E are the only components that are largely controlled by intent rather than chance. While teams thrive or perish on ‘culture changes’ in either direction it is foregone that culture changes take a lot of time.

A & E can be implemented in a very short time-frame. It is only the start, though. Any major changes in A & E, implemented too quickly, might create a shock-wave in ‘good’ (read ‘comfortable’) times, leading to adverse impact on results. However in THIS case, major changes in A & E were done when the team performance was close to its nadir (i.e. around when Dhoni’s 2^nd era was closing out). Things that would seem to be “upsetting” otherwise...those were perhaps now seen as a “Ray of Hope”.

Everything, absolutely EVERYTHING can happen when people chuck out the resistance and look forward to a change.

That ends my thesis, responding to Shrikant Subramanian’s Facebook question. [wiping brow]

Exciting? Indeed. I was just as excited while force-fitting the pieces of the puzzle. Thanks to you for appreciating. And at this humbling moment of success I would like to thank my…zz-zz-zz-zz

Crappy?? Yippie kay yay…..all theses necessarily are.

Best Batsman in Bangla

"I had confidence in Mashrafe [Mortaza]. To me, he is the best batsman in the team.." - Shahadat Hossain.

Exactly what I wondered about for a moment as I learnt of Mortaza's 4th day heroics against Indian bowlers. Since he made those head turning 30 odd runs to upset New Zealand in a World Cup warm up match Mashrafe Mortaza has shown more than decent batting ability whenever his team has needed it. His knack of knocking a furious cameo under pressure is the stuff of a genuine all rounder in his early days. While his methods will keep him miles away from the "Mr. Dependable" tag, his talent at belting leather makes itself obvious in innings after audacious innings.

I'm waiting for the day when Mashrafe is going to pull his team over the line against a big team in an actual ODI. Life will never be the same again for the young man as he will then be a star. Make no mistake, he is already a very good bowler. In his subcontinent though nothing succeeds like batting and ODIs.

Unity and Providence

Master cricket writer Rahul Bhattacharya ends his typically lucid piece on Shiv Chanderpaul's cricket and genes with this observation:

"On the television in Mr Chanderpaul's living room it appears that West Indies have just slipped to defeat against New Zealand, their second loss in three days. The thought, I'm afraid is inescapable: Unity and Providence must come together if West Indies are to win it in Guyana."

'Unity' assumes even greater significance in the upcoming SL-v-WI match tonight if we take into account the open-book West Indian infighting during the past week on team and squad selection issues. It should be a cracking game between 2 teams desperate for a Super 8 win tonight.

Here's a Rahul Bhattacharya profile of Ireland's rising speedster Boyd Rankin. He observes:

"Boyd now averages 23.5 from four matches in the World Cup; before it he was not even a certainty in the XI, just a raw talent who had impressed coaches, including former England seamer Mike Hendrick. Indeed, World Cup preparation had to be mixed with some equally pressing issues.

It is lambing season back home, and things are busy on the family farm in Londonderry in Northern Ireland. "There were a few sheep lambing," he told the Mirror, "so I was doing that whenever I came back from training." It is not quite so casual too. Wake-up time 6am, then a session of farm work, then a driving of 140 miles to practice, then back to farming chores
till midnight."

280 miles of travel each day - all for the love and joy of playing an uncelebrated but beautiful game. And to top it all with a World Cup bowling average of 23.5. That must be getting his 'ranking buoyed'. (Apologies for the two bad puns, Rahul)

Indian post-Bermuda worries and music therapy

India came out to defend 413 after the luncheon break, needing to bowl out Bermuda for a low total in order to keep up with the run rate. Bermuda went on to reach 110/8 on a pitch aiding swing bowling all along the day. In the light of their earlier performances this was already looking like a relatively better show by the minnows.

India could not trouble the only pro Bermudian batsman, David Hemp (he remained not out). Upto this point the Bermuda innings adequately reflected the toothlessness of Indian bowling and the skipper had little to do about it. All 3 medium pacers were bowling at speeds within a few miles at each other, with no yorkers / slower deliveries in sight. Dread to see such a unidimensional team of bowlers face the attacking batsmen of Sri Lanka in 4 days....

Soon after the team from the isles with 70,000 odd population eased themselves to 154/8. During this period Dravid kept bringing on, among others, a struggling Agarkar to finish off the innings but never did he think of summoning that 4th swing bowler in his team, Sourav Ganguly. When Dravid finally brought on a non regular bowler it had to be Sehwag, and I thought even his off spinners swung enough to remind the captain of Dada. A few overs later Dravid gave a bowl to his second non regular bowler Sachin and he promptly picked up Leverock with a leg spinner. Sach then proceeded to prodigiously swing the next two deliveries into the pads of last man Jones. When Kumble (he bowled better today but not exceptionally yet) dismissed Jones finally Bermuda had made India field for 40 overs.

Dravid has often shown this tendency of persisting too long with his main bowlers even after they have ceased to be effective. We have seen him rotating his struggling specialist bowlers when allowing a part timer to have a bowl would perhaps be saner. In the conditions prevailing in Trinidad today Dravid's decision not to employ Dada even for a single over looked like an outright shocker from a distance, especially as India needed to maximise the win margin to give themselves the best chances of qualifying in case there is a 3 way points tie with Bangla and SL in Group B.

If that - persisting with an out of form Agarkar and never trying out a part time bowler tailor-made for the conditions - was not stubbornness I do not know what is.

I hope Dravid gets rid of it (stubbornness) by the end of this match and his team management seriously considers including Pathan in the next match as a replacement for either Uthappa (5 bowlers) or Agarkar (7 batsmen).

Lovely Sidelight: Over no. 37.2 of Bermuda innings. As India are made to toil by the Bermudian lower order the television camera zooms into the Indian dressing room. It looks relaxed. Irfan Pathan is saying something to Sreesanth. No wait, Irfan is actually humming a few lines of some popular melody. Pathan's lost-in-the-song expressions and waving hands speak a lot about his involvement in the solo performance.

It does not remain a solo very long as - joy - Sreesanth in his studiously frameless glasses joins in pretty soon! Why don't they put mikes inside the dressing rooms and switch those on specifically at these tender moments? [Perhaps the main concern is switching them off before a batsman comes back dismissed off an umpiring error].

As though that is not exhilarating enough, the third guy to appear in the same frame is also a reputed dressing room singer in his own right - Harbhajan Singh. However he looks a little distracted and is probably busy reading a mag.

With the skipper making all his musically talented (remember, Dinesh Karthik is more than chirpy behind the stumps...haven't heard much of his dressing room singing though) players warm the bench, Bhajji may well have been fishing for entry coupons for the trio to musical talent hunts while the other two maestros practised for it. What do they call their band? Do rush in your suggestions.

Or did the doctor finally recommend music therapy for the grim Mr. Chappell?

Too much too soon

These well-intended warm up games ahead of the World Cup are proving to be dampeners....

"Ire on fire, makes no. 1 dance on a wire"

"Mashrafe takes Oz-whitewashers to the cleaners"

How serenely shocking would headlines like these be if results such as those came up in the WC group league matches.....As things stand now, these premature good shows by smaller teams in tour games are likely to diminish their chances of causing upsets when the real thing starts.

For one, their 'unsuspecting' big brothers will be wary of their shock value now. [However much their coaches may warn them, players of top teams have this proud history of simply refusing to take the small fries seriously until calamity]. Also the minnows will now feel some pressure to try and produce a repeat act - the last thing you would want to happen to people woefully short on match practice against quality opposition.

However I am still not writing off the Bangla Boys' chances of causing a real flutter in the Indo-SL group. My neighbours across the Bengal border on the east have shown too many flashes in 2005 and early 2006 against top flight opposition to dismiss this NZ beater as a one-off in the pan.

Welcome to the pool of death, Sri Lanka & India!

Update: That Ire-wire-fire bit on SA has reached higher.....sixth floor precisely. One hopes it was fire indeed and not just smoke - of the forbidden kind that some Pakistan cricketers tend to puff while listening to Calypso beats. The incident was funny on the hotel's part, to say the least.....in mega events like these safety should be the least of players' concerns. Spectators too. We love watching players on fire only inside a cricket ground...

Update 2: We have more fun smoking out of that fire...

Update 3: I eat back the observations made in this post. Ireland and Bangla came out blazing on March 17th and all but ended Indo-Pak challenge in the World Cup. They did it all with a quiet confidence and quality of performance that says to buggers like me: "It is up to you to feel the heat."

DC preview on South Africa

is up. Told you about my latent poetic talent.....

Other collaborative WC'07 previews on DC:

West Indies
Sri Lanka
New Zealand
England
Zimbabwe
Bangladesh / Kenya
Minnows [Scotland / Holland / Bermuda / Ireland / Canada]
Pakistan
India
Australia